East of DMV, West of Twin Cities

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David and Goliath was an epoch that was written centuries ago in the Old-Testament. It is a classic rendition of when an underdog defeats a much stronger opponent.

Twenty years after the tragic events of 9/11 that led to the loss of thousands of innocent lives, a Goliath has presumably been driven out from David’s lands. A miscalculated bravado, an end to Bush’s ‘crusade’ or a checkmate on regional countries?

The question remains whether David won or Goliath and whose side was King Saul on in this epic battle?

This article will trace the trajectory of ‘America’s longest war’ and its implications on Pakistan, focusing on its possible ramifications.

American-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (N.A.T.O) forces invaded Afghanistan with the operational objective/pretext of defeating Al-Qaeda and removing its sanctuaries from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s intelligence agencies were co-opted for this role, and they aptly did their work initially. 9/11 masterminds such as Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and Osama Bin Laden, amongst others, were either captured or killed. However, soon a new breed of militant outfits emerged that turned their guns on the state and citizenry of Pakistan. They supplemented it with a toxic ideology that looked to weigh down the state.

 Multiple operations concluding with Operation Zarb-E-Azb sapped thousands of men and millions of dollars of equipment worth of material of the Pakistani military. It dragged Pakistan into a quagmire that was not of the country’s creation. Pakistan was fighting a battle of ill-advised and unclear American ambitions. A political settlement from Pakistan’s establishment was a cry that fell on deaf ears in Washington and Brussels.

PAKISTANI NATION’S ENTRY INTO THE ‘GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR’:

Nevertheless, two events happened at a gap of six months in 2014 that shook the nation’s conscience. The first incident was the militant attack on Karachi airport. The second was the more inhumane and tragic militant raid on Army Public School, Peshawar. It rang alarm bells not only across Pakistan but the World. People from all walks of life joined in the grief of the families of innocent lives that had ended too soon. The nation finally awoke to the militancy that was looking to tear apart the state and society. It had targeted Pakistan’s economic lifeline and its future across the length of the country. The Pakistani nation was drawn into the ‘War on Terror.’

Seven years since that cataclysmic day, it seems that the primary operational objective of ‘Global War on Terror’ has also been left wanting. Even though Osama Bin Laden is no more, the peril from America’s antagonist, i.e., Al-Qaeda, has metastasized and become a threat across Asia, Africa, and other developing nations. Moreover, other transnational terror outfits have found an audience, appeal, support, recruits, funding, and weaponry to become a problem for societies and citizens worldwide, particularly in West Asia. For instance, the recent attack by a religiously motivated militant on innocent civilians and American Marines-conducting non-combat duties-set a dangerous precedent for times to come.

That brings to the second question of whether the American strategic objective of bringing a modern centralized state structure premised on democracy and infrastructural development to a war-ravaged nation succeeded. Yes and No. As for development, the answer, according to a Pakistani economist, is yes. Afghanistan’s population’s electricity access has increased from 22% to 97.7%; its road network has grown manifold with the development of the National Highway and its peripheries; the internet usage has increased to such an extent that proportionally more Afghans use Twitter than any other country in the South Asian/Central Asian region. However, the answer becomes blurry if the development is measured according to the Human Development Index indicator. Education has increased across the urban centers, so has access to primary care health. However, that infrastructure might not be sustainable if instability – according to Christine Fair, a Southeast Asian geopolitical expert, is counterintuitively furthered by Pakistan-continues in Afghanistan post U.S evacuation. Moreover, Human Rights (read: Women’s Rights) will become a casualty if the Taliban government starts implementing its strict laws.

Let us zoom out and see whether American strategic objectives have been met regionally. There is again ambiguity here. America has left a militarized society with the latest sophisticated armory (falling in the hands of the neo-Talibs) in the neighborhood of two of its first-tier and one second-tier adversary.

In his recent article, Dr. Andrew Latham has painted a rosy and optimistic picture for American audiences of how these adversaries might be adversely affected due to the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan. Thus, according to him, American strategic objectives have been met apologetically. However, is that only to write Goliath’s wishful obituary. Dr.Latham would have been wise to add to the list Pakistani law enforcement agencies’ contributions as a frontline state to the ‘War on Terror,’ a.k.a Bush’s crusade. This acknowledgment should be highlighted in unambiguous terms as the nuclear-armed state was at a high risk of facing radicalization a decade ago. However, a prudent long-term strategy finalized in the shape of the National Action Plan of 2014 and backed by the Pakistani military ensured that this threat was eradicated – a knockout battle for which Pakistan nearly gave its life.

Twenty years later since that now-infamous speech by former U.S president George W. Bush, the American economy cannot sustain the ambitious ‘Global War on Terror’ project of certain war-hawks. On Aug 31, 2021, the U.S. Central Command noted the prevailing sentiment and pronounced Bush’s crusades dead. It took two trillion dollars, the lives of 47,000 Afghan civilians, and thousands of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (N.A.T.O) soldiers to meet this end.

 In the days preceding and succeeding that date, the Liberal International Order (L.I.O)  project has faced its most significant credibility question since Cold War. However, Joe Biden decided to cut the umbilical cord of the Ashraf Ghani regime convincingly. At what cost? Tactical or Operational victories?

As for the tactical victories, the lives of hundreds of thousands of civilians lost since Operation Enduring Freedom started in October 2001 is a blot on the Western Powers’ conscience (even though Biden administration is trying to make Americans find solace in O.B.L.’s killing a decade ago). Three thousand N.A.T.O personnel have also died. What has been gained? Collateral damage? Millions displaced and wounded? There is very little data on civilian casualties in Afghanistan.

In all this mayhem, where does the opportunity lie?

Firstly, the neo-Taliban, Turkish and American forces manned the Kabul airport before the final American evacuation. The images broadcasted live across the Television screens around the World showed that the war had become one of narratives rather than arms. They have a common enemy in global militant outfits. Therefore, cooperation, even in the toughest of circumstances, is possible.

THE IMPACT OF N.A.T.O’S WITHDRAWAL ON PAKISTAN

Pakistan has faced immense socio-economic and military losses since the time the United States invaded Afghanistan. Some people calculate the amount to the tune of $150 billion as the economic cost of the war on Pakistan. Moreover, thousands of civilians and law enforcement personnel have died. Pakistan is also home to one the largest Afghan Refugee population, with an estimated 1,438,000 documented refugees living inside its borders. This figure is likely to be affected in the coming days as Afghanistan faces a humanitarian crisis due to a ‘not-so-peaceful transition of power. Pakistani state and citizenry will bear the burden if and when Afghan refugees start pouring into the country.

Nevertheless, the government should take proactive measures to ensure that the refugees are accorded all the rights as enshrined in the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1967 Protocol, including the right for ‘non-refoulment. The non-refoulment principle as contained in Article 33(1) of the convention prohibits states from forcefully expelling refugees “in any manner whatsoever to the borders of a territory where their life and freedom might be under threat on account of their religion, race, or political views.

However, being a developing country itself, Pakistan cannot undertake the heavy lifting required to rehabilitate the refugees on its own. Multilateral institutions and developed countries must share the burden by either resettling the refugees in their own country or providing adequate aid to assist the refugee effort by Pakistan.

The upcoming Shangai Cooperation Organization (S.C.O) summit in Tajikistan due to be held in mid-September could also offer a timely and valuable opportunity for high-level consultations regarding Afghan security, humanitarian relief, refugee management, stability, and future socio-economic development.

However, globalization will mean that the burden of bringing Afghanistan into the twenty-first century and keeping Pakistan stable will be keenly observed by Western policymakers from the other corner of the World, for at least the foreseeable future. Americans might instead, according to American academics and diplomats, leverage towards the ‘Asia-Pivot,’ i.e., Indo-Pacific region. However, their interests and stakes are inextricably linked to developments in the Af-Pak region. For instance, creating a united front against transnational militants’ presence in Afghanistan will be an area where American and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (I.E.A) interests might converge. Order and Stability premised on Human Rights, and Economic self-sufficiency in the country will be another area of convergence between the two former adversaries.  According to a Columbia University professor, one pull factor, the U.S administration could use would be to make the new Afghan setup aware of the workings of the International Financial System. In that way, they could be made aware of the $9.8 billion held in the U.S Federal Reserve that can be unfrozen if specific accommodations are made with the Americans. Moreover, the new Afghan government would also become entitled to $440 million in special drawing rights it is entitled to under the $650 billion global allocation.

However, presently United States government would be wise to heed the advice of Henry Kissinger, that no clear strategic move is available for the existing future to overcome this self-inflicted defeat and loss of American credibility globally.

Democracy will be something that has been the desire of Western liberals around the World. However, neither of the states of the West have the capacity or capability to sustain this venture, particularly in the West Asian region. They are faced with bigger challenges (read: Eastern Europe/Indo-Pacific). Therefore, thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the L.I.O project has lost steam. Therefore, glaringly America is unlikely to use hard power to bring democracy to any other country in the Middle East/South Asia for at the least the foreseeable future. Yet, now or never, the U.S. can scrap its global killing program abroad and focus on the refugees it’s morally indebted to take in at home.

BACK TO OLD GAMES:

Strategic stability in South Asia is what will be of longer-term interest of American policymakers. There would be a sustained effort by London – which hosts a large South Asian diaspora- and Washington to ensure this between the three nuclear powers in the region. However, it remains to be seen whether Pakistan’s reliance on strategic weapons will increase or decrease in the future. This strategic stability might be prefaced on two reasons:

  1. Increasing Conventional asymmetry between Pakistan and India & India and China, respectively
  2. New Delhi’s increased ambition to undercut Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence through:
    1. Advanced Ballistic Missile Defense technology sourced from Russia and Israel
    1. Ambiguity in its No First Use policy (N.F.U), as stated by people in the highest Defence offices

However, nuclear deterrence can never act as a substitute for conventional forces that are necessary for war-fighting and internal peace.

The conventional military threat that Pakistan will face from across its borders cannot be underestimated. The muscle-flexing by regional powers (even though top Pakistani leadership has conveyed in unequivocal terms its desire is for ‘peace’) will continue to pressure Pakistan to continue modernizing its Armed Forces, primarily its Air Force.

However, it is time to ‘bury the past and see where the future opportunity for Pakistan lies.

In all this regional and global jockeying, there is an opportunity for the South Asian state that should not go begging. Two of the World’s superpowers (besides a host of European powers) are using their influence to rein Pakistan in their camp. Pakistan is America’s only designated Non-N.A.T.O ally in the region, whereas China and Pakistan are economic, strategic, and diplomatic partners. The Sino-Pak alliance has only strengthened over time and will continue to overtime.

Therefore, post U.S evacuation, there might be fewer problems faced by Pakistan when borrowing from International lenders from an economic standpoint. United States holds veto power in the leading multilateral lending agencies in the World, such as the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F) and World Bank. Henceforth, after evacuating from Afghanistan, the lending would not be connected to security-related conditions, and the United States could offer an olive branch to Pakistan. However, it must be cautioned that the Western aid to modernize the military will likely dry up. Pakistan might increasingly source defense and security needs from the Eurasian powers.

Economically, the Chinese-backed China Pakistan Economic Corridor (C.P.E.C) might also see a new pathway/route through Afghanistan. It might create a dense network of roads and connectivity across the Af-Pak region. Pakistan could also become a central transit hub between Energy starved India and Resource-rich Central Asia. It can also result in increasing land trade between Central Asian Republics and Afghanistan with India. Free from predatory lower-level officials seeking to enrich themselves, Pakistan could instead benefit from this new potential geo-economic opportunity. This is because the shortest land route between these countries and India passes through Pakistan.

Similarly, China might undertake development projects in Afghanistan with resolve as a semblance of non-Western backed order returns. China might also seek to link its strategic allies in the region and reschedule debt repayments that Pakistan owes to it. Lastly, with deeply entrenched economic interests in the region, China might act as a mediator to prevent a new era of proxy warfare in Afghanistan. Under the neo-Taliban, Islamic Emirate’s assurance for not permitting anybody to utilize their country against regionally contiguous countries should be a promise that China, Pakistan, Iran, and the Central Asian Republics would see positively. However, deeds more than words are what is required.

Nonetheless, the new signs that the Chinese are seriously thinking about offering the new Afghan government monetary help and possibly transitioning C.P.E.C through Afghanistan offer some ray of hope for the financially stressed Afghan Taliban. Likewise, the new Turkish-Qatari plan to together oversee the Kabul air terminal is also a positive improvement that will guarantee that Afghanistan stays associated with the rest of the World and the international community and mitigate the effects of an impending ‘financial crunch’.

However, the security needs of both these countries are appendaged to Pakistan’s security apparatus. Pakistan can use this opportunity to either strengthen itself economically or seek to achieve conventional arms parity with its rapidly advancing Eastern neighbor. Pakistan and India’s defense gap in technology, budgetary allocations, and modernizations are increasing at an ominous pace. With the help of global powers, Pakistan is likely to invest more in Strategic Stability. However, in the conventional domain, things might have to be more self-reliant. In a hurriedly called press conference, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser stressed that Pakistan’s only desire is ‘Peace, Peace and (solely) Peace.’ However, a week later, the army chief in a Defence day speech reiterated that the country’s desire for peace should not be construed as weakness.

Returning to Pakistan’s perils and weak economic situation, the country will have to keep its allies in the region happy to sustain its competition with its Eastern neighbor. However, the regional realignment shows that although the country has not become a regional or global pariah, it is quickly losing its diplomatic clout. The right-wing Indian government will maximize its efforts to isolate the country and bend it to its demands. New Delhi also has a sour taste of its Afghan allies losing power in a rather scuttled manner. Indian active role in Afghanistan, cemented in the broader anti-Pakistani agenda, has always tried to keep Afghan territory a launching ground for crafting various anti-Pakistani clandestine activities. The promotion of anti-Pakistani sentiment has become a difficult task for India with the U.S. evacuation.

However, according to the former foreign secretary of Pakistan, Ambassador R.M Khan, the country must accept that New Delhi is a regional player and (take into consideration its legitimate demands). This initiative will aid the country focus on ‘geo-economics and take advantage of the rapid regional development on the East Side.

Nonetheless, Pakistan considers the reduced Indian influence and role within Afghanistan as a geo-politically and geo-strategically favorable development. The hurried exodus of the Indian diplomats, intelligence, and defense officials immediately after the Afghan Taliban’s take-over indicates that New Delhi’s understands that its influence and intelligence role was only possible due to the following three reasons

  1. The consent of the U.S backed erstwhile Afghan government
  2. The support of Afghan intelligence agency (National Directorate of Security)
  3.  The cover of the ‘rapacious’ Afghan National Security Forces.

This is just one example of the hybrid war that was being mocked by specific media analysts in Pakistan and taken advantage of by the Indian media. This kind of hybrid/information warfare has counterintuitively aided transnational militant groups in increasing their recruitment and tap shadowy revenue networks (read: foreign funding) to sustain and grow their ideological base. Therefore, Pakistani law enforcement and intelligence agencies must remain vigilant against this kind of warfare in the future. Dismantling, disrupting, and pre-empting against this kind of warfare is what Operation Raad-ul-Fasaad aimed to achieve strategically. Information warfare will gain increasing importance in future warfare, particularly in South Asia (where social media outreach creates a toxic combination with illiteracy, multidimensional poverty, and religious extremism).

Pakistan must consider raising deepening Indian interest, commitment, and role in the U.S. ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy and Quad formation at the upcoming S.C.O. summit because New Delhi cannot be expected to remain simultaneously committed to both the ‘Eurasian geo-economics-based continental vision of Asian Century’ as well as the Western-led geopolitical grand-strategy aimed at containing and contesting it, at the same time.

TOWARDS A BRIGHTER HORIZON:

However, Biden can still restore allied confidence in U.S. Leadership, laying out a robust counterterrorism strategy based on Afghanistan’s changed reality and assuring allies in Eastern Europe and Asia. 

Pakistan will have to be wary of the recent developments regionally and globally to protect its national interests, i.e., the welfare of its people, the ideology of the state, and economic development. Even though the challenges are many. However, the opportunities are also there. It is up to the policymakers to either focus on the opportunities or fall under the weight of the challenges. The vacillating manner of Pakistan’s social and political growth has been highly detrimental to its diplomacy, security, and economic growth. Millions have left the country searching for physical and economic security.

Moreover, according to Ambassador Lodhi, it has come to be regarded as a ‘clientalistic state’ by regional and global powers. Also, former American defense secretary Jim’ Mad Dog’ Mattis described Pakistan in December 2019 as the ‘most dangerous country in the world’. These are not suitable labels for a country like Pakistan.

With a significant social media presence, a animated media, and one of the fastest-growing middle class in the World, these agents can be leveraged to shed these labels.

According to a director at the Centre for Aerospace and Security, Studies Pakistan is (presently) driving the strategic work to urge the global powers to stay engaged with Afghanistan regardless of changing political realities. In any case, the global mood is, for the most part, suspicious towards the Afghan Taliban’s ascent to control in Afghanistan. Also, a few concerns have likewise been raised inside Pakistan. These are with regards to its national security (from traditional and non-traditional threats) and financial stability.

Today the country stands at a turning point. In regional and global diplomacy, the ball is once again in Pakistan’s court. Militarily, the nation has paid the price alongside innocent civilians. Politically, there is a time for consensus and cooperation rather than conflict and point-scoring. Moreover, issues such as the fight against CoVID-19, economic well-being, and climate change have also once again united the nation. It must be underscored that Pakistan is a country that is one of the most likely to be affected due to climate-related disasters.

CONCLUSION:

Pakistan has paid a heavy price for the Global War on Terror (read: American neo-cons messianic fight against Osama’s psychopaths). However, it would be wise to seek the future through internal reforms and resolve domestic issues before meddling in the affairs of another country. That being said, the hazard from across Pakistan’s Eastern and Western borders is real and cannot/should not be disregarded.

Similarly, Afghanistan has paid a heavy price in terms of lives lost and internal instability. The new Afghan government would do well to integrate into the regional economy and bring order internally. It will be up to the new Afghan administration to work towards a more inclusive form of governance over time. Moreover, it can work on establishing a solid diplomatic corps. The precedence of the Holy Prophet (P.B.U.H) and his interaction with the established powers of the time (Byzantine, Persian, etc.) can act as a guide on navigating foreign relations with the regionally adjoining countries and the World in general. A positive development this time around has been that Kabul and other cities have not been reduced to rubble as they were in the civil war ensuing Soviet withdrawal.

Lastly, the United States and its Western allies had noble intentions to bring development and democracy to Afghanistan. However, the way they went about it cost them a fortune in blood and treasure and a fragmented reputation. United States would do well to continue long-term sustained engagement with the Af-Pak region to ensure regional stability and good governance. Nonetheless, how the Taliban overturned the throne of power in Kabul and subsequently the American investment of trillions of dollars in eleven days is reminiscent of the German blitzkrieg campaign of World War 2. The American evacuation from its embassy building through a Chinook helicopter in Saigon was repeated in Kabul to add salt to the wounds.

In conclusion, it would be good to be reminded of Churchill’s quote:

“No war is over until the enemy says it’s over. We may think it [is] over, we may declare it over, but in fact, the enemy gets emboldened.”

The question remains which side King Saul was playing in the past forty years of turmoil in David’s land starting in 1979.

Nationalism, Soverignity and Patriotism

Nationalism has been the most potent force in world politics for over 200 years. Its most significant achievement has been establishing the nation as the fundamental unit for political rule and with the nationalists stating the only viable form of government having legitimacy. In the last half-century, Nationalism has also re-emerged as a reaction against the homogenizing impact of globalization and as a means of resisting immigration and multiculturalism. Right-wing parties such as France’s National Rally and Alternative for Germany (A.F.D) are examples of this sentiment in two of Europe’s biggest and most dynamic economic machines.

The nation is a complex phenomenon shaped by a collection of cultural, political & psychological factors.  Culturally, a nation is a group of people bound by a common culture, language, history, and traditions. Nonetheless, all countries exhibit some degree of heterogeneity. Politically, a nation-state includes people who regard themselves as a ‘natural’ political community and gel together to establish or maintain Sovereignty. Psychologically, the nation is a group of people who share loyalty and affection in patriotism.

Read more: Covid ‘vaccine nationalism’ highlights failure of Multi-lateral system

Nationalism as a concept 

Nationalism is closely tied to the conception of Sovereignty. Sovereignty in ancient Egypt resided with the Pharaohs. The Sovereignty that they held sprang from the idea of giving them a divine status that was not ascribed to the commoners.

Moving to the 19th century, the idea of Nationalism in Europe there was premised on the following postulation:

Legitimacy is not handed down from God; it surges up from the people. Philosophers such as Rousseau drew on a well-established sense of nationhood. He stated that “The principle of all Sovereignty resides essentially in the nation. Nobody nor individual may exercise any authority which does not proceed directly from the nation.” Thus establishing the grounds for the concept of popular Sovereignty.

Hence, as seen from the first premise of Sovereignty, the idea of Nationalism has strong groundings in the principles of ‘popular Sovereignty. However, Pakistan’sobjectives resolution stated that Sovereignty over the entire world belongs to the Divine and the authority He has delegated to the state of Pakistan. Objectives resolution ultimately became part of the Pakistani Constitution when the Eighth Amendment in the Constitution of 1973 was passed in 1985.

Read more: 74 years on from Independence, Pakistan still in multiple quagmires

Some minority members resented this insertion and stated that new words should be inserted, such as “National sovereignty belongs to the people of Pakistan.”

This contention between popular against divine Sovereignty continues to play out in modern South Asia as Afghanistan verges on the legitimate form of government that would meet international as well as domestic recognition. First, let us look at the premise of Divine Sovereignty. Does the assumption that a Divine Being holds Sovereignty over the entire universe fundamentally guarantee that those exercising this Sovereignty also have the right to extend their Sovereignty to every conceivable domain created by the Divine? Secondly, what is the consensus on who is eligible to exercise that Sovereignty? Is it the clerical class that are the custodians of the Divine Law as in some parts of the region, or is the Monarch as in other parts of the region, or is it the democratically elected leaders as in Turkey and Pakistan?

Sovereignty explained in political sciences 

Sovereignty, besides being a contested concept in Political Science, is disputed in International Law as well. Political Independence and territorial integrity are sacrosanct principles of International Law guaranteed under the United Nations Charter Article 2 (4).

Sovereign states are the primary subjects of binding International law norms. Interestingly, one of the main challenges to the legitimacy of international law is that it allegedly fails to respect the Sovereignty of states, intruding upon domains in which they should be free to make their own decisions. By analogy to individual autonomy, state sovereignty is often understood in international law as a competence, immunity, or power, particularly as the ability to make autonomous choices.

Read more: Op-ed: Understanding the eighteenth amendment

The confluence of Nationalism, Patriotism, and Sovereignty has a long history. Eminent Pakistani journalist NasimZehra in a recent Op-Ed in The News has stated that AshrafGhani is looking to retreat in the ‘last refuge of the scoundrel,’ i.e. patriotism, to protect the crumbling Afghan regime. The Afghan government has resultantly started to shift the blame on Pakistan.

There beget some more questions. Are Nationalism and patriotism interwoven?  Can there be a nationalist who is not patriotic? Is a patriot who does not subscribe to that nation’s concept of Sovereignty as expressed by its Constitution still a patriot?  Indian vigilante mobs of late have found the answer to at least the first premise.

‘Anti-national’ is a term that has found resonance since the B.J.P troupe have come to power. Their narrow definition of patriotism has excluded minorities, left-wing parties, and regional peace advocates to create an ‘Usvs Them’ identity politics narrative. Indian parliament does not hold ‘absolute Sovereignty’ as reaffirmed by the Indian Supreme Court judgments in Minerva Mills and Waman Rao.

Ideologies fueling violence and hatred 

However, the vigilante mobs operating under the banner of a particular party that exercises majority in the Indian parliament appear to exercise the immunity granted to a sovereign. India’s hostile Hindutva ideology has resulted in targeting minorities, villainization of social activists, and identity politics that is looking to cut the society’s fabric. There are several repercussions for this economically, militarily, and socially. The Hindutva ideology has sowed the seeds of dissent and violence in Indian society.

Read more: Violence in India has progressively increased during pandemic, says report

Whereas Modi is just an individual, the Hindutva ideology propagated by R.S.S has started to take permanent roots in Indian society. This is likely to have devastating consequences for the Indian polity as this ideology will undercut the essential fabric of Indian society. Economically, India’s degenerating polarized society is expected to hamper institutions that would result in economic growth.

Socially, the democratic norms (including freedom of expression, freedom to choose their way of life, and other fundamental Human Rights) decline. National institutions are likely to see deterioration, and more and more people are likely to be affected by this destructive ideology as the majority gravitates towards it. The dogmatic majority believes that this ideology would protect its interests.

Therefore, it is imperative to rethink the concepts of Nationalism, patriotism, and Sovereignty in the South Asian region in modern times. There is no better time to do so than mid-August when two Independent nation-states were born out of the rubble of the British Empire in 1947. Two nation-states still grappling with basic conceptions of Sovereignty while their populace hardens the narratives around Nationalism. Very soon, a third one on the North-Western flank of the region will be added to this quest

Afghanistan: Important Questions for the Future

The United States, the world’s leading economy, with trillions of dollars flowing into the international system annually through the American economic machine, has for the past twenty years seen Afghanistan as a hazard.

In particular, the neo-conservative American elite such as George Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and their crew wanted to eradicate terrorism (the kind that might threaten the United States) and entered the country in 2001.

Afghanistan, they saw as the cradle of this threat. The country under the orthodox Taliban regime, at that time, had descended into medieval practices. Moreover, the transnational terrorist group al-Qaeda had found sanctuary in the South Asian state and conducted acts of sabotage on American interests.

Today, Ashraf Ghani’s government holds little sway over Afghan territory. Warlords-backed local administrators frequently disregard his orders; rockets were fired outside the presidential palace at his inauguration, and his government does not raise enough revenue to cover its expenditure.

Nevertheless, in his recent article in the Foreign Affairs, he vowed that if Taliban forces intend to continue the fight and pursue the path of chaos and violence, the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (A.N.D.S.F.) will fight them.

However, many questions arise such as will they fight to protect the general populace or the Ghani regime? The Afghan Army is composed of 180,000 personnel. Will they continue to receive foreign aid and equipment post-U.S withdrawal?

Robert Gates, the former American defense secretary, has appealed for continued American financial assistance to the Afghan military and the United States not to repeat the mistakes of abandoning it, as it did in the 1990s.
Therefore, the first question is whether an amicable settlement between the two warring factions can be churned out. One of the solutions seems to be to set up an interim government without any political ambitions.

Afghanistan’s laws of nature

There are primarily three dimensions to the Afghan Peace Process. First is the Intra-Afghan aspect. Second is Afghanistan’s relations with its neighbors and, finally, the critical factor on the future role of global powers.
Disrupting an already fragile political ecosystem regarding the intra-Afghan dimension, different interest groups might fragment in an already divided state and vie for national power if the country descends into a possible civil war post-US withdrawal.

In this case, the two main factions would be the current Afghan regime, backed by the West, claiming its legitimacy through popular elections (although it had an abysmally low voter turnout). On the other hand, is the anti-government faction led by the Afghan Taliban, who are on a march and sensing imminent victory.

How the Taliban claim legitimacy is not based on the Western liberal democratic model. Their interpretation of laws is also not a standardized common-law-based model. They are what would in legal jurisprudence be classified as belonging to the ‘naturalist’ school of thought.

Moreover, the constitutional arrangement that they seek is also still unclear. The core issue is under what kind of legal system the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan regime would contest against each other? Over the years, the vacillating chronological development of the Afghan constitution (from monarchy to democracy to theocracy back to democracy) has also been covered well by Haroun Rahimi.

It is a topic in itself for a separate article. The second dimension is Afghanistan and its relations with its neighbors. Afghanistan, in the ’90s, was a battleground for the proxies of regional countries. However, in the 21st Century, it seems that the dunes have shifted.

Over time the alliance structure of regional countries and their Afghan allies have changed; no regional country wants a hostile neighbor. However, the pertinent question is whether the regional states can cooperate to avoid this problem.

Pakistan’s concerns

Pakistan’s five primary concerns viz-a-viz Afghanistan include (a) cross-border terrorism, (b) Indian influence in Afghanistan, (c) drugs, and narcotics trade, (d) looming refugee crisis due to a chaotic Afghanistan, and (e) water issues.

Sensing an impending worst-case scenario for them and their allies in Afghanistan, India, has also opened up contacts with those in the Afghan Taliban leadership, not aligned with other regional states. However, Pakistan’s red line is the Indian role in Afghanistan, particularly given its history of supporting proxy groups inimical to Pakistan’s interests.

Pakistan will once more face the blowback if chaos reigns in Afghanistan. Forces, politically and ideologically aligned with ultra-right-wing outfits, might become emboldened. 

Central Asian Republics (C.A.R.’s) might also face the consequences of an Afghanistan that descends into civil war. According to a director at the Center for Aerospace and Security Studies, Pakistan has been the most’ affected collateral damage’ of the Afghan war. Pakistan has already signaled its shift from geo-strategic to geo-economics.

It has learned the lesson of not involving itself in the Afghan quagmire. Now Pakistan needs a long-term viable Afghan policy that recognizes global and regional dynamics, the rule of law, geo-economics, regional politics and the security considerations of regional powers.

One welcome development would be the operationalization of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (“T.A.P.I”) gas pipeline. Turkmenistan is a resource-rich country, and connecting it with energy poor India would offer a plethora of opportunities for Pakistan, which seeks to become a gateway for regional integration.

The third dimension is the relations of any future Afghan setup with the West and other global powers. This dimension is where economics will play a crucial and sustainable role. If allowed to make a meaningful impact, i.e., without the intermediary of a predatory governance structure, economic development will deter the production of drugs and the grounding of transnational terrorist outfits.

China, being a neighbor, might be able to link the country with its Belt and Road Initiative and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (C.P.E.C.) projects.

China: Another complication for the U.S. in Afghanistan

In a recent webinar organized by the Institute of Policy Studies, Brigadier (r) Shahid Nazir stated that “Americans are trying to wash their hands clean and hand the reins to regional powers such as China and Russia.”

However, according to Dominic Tierney, America can handle a modest growth of Chinese influence in Afghanistan. The Chinese presence in Afghanistan is not an existential threat to the United States. Furthermore, Ambassador Jilani, former foreign secretary of Pakistan, stated that China is one country that is respected by all factions in Afghanistan.

Therefore, China’s mediatory role post-American withdrawal will be pivotal. Pakistan is undertaking the diplomatic heavy lifting to ensure a peaceful solution post the American withdrawal, and to ensure the country does not descend into a civil war. In addition, economically, there is a need to help Afghanistan, which is still a war-ravaged economy.

It would be a herculean undertaking; however, through regional cooperation, a doable one. China, the primary country with the ability to undertake this, has expectations for providing an economic corridor with no political, social, and ideological demands.

According to Dominic Tierney, the key to a future American strategy in Afghanistan lies not ‘in American soldiers but American dollars.’ Kabul raises $2.5 billion in revenue annually and spends $11 billion. The budgetary fiscal gap of three-quarters is covered by foreign aid.

The lack of tax generation can be partly attributed to what has been described as endemic corruption in Afghan revenue-generating governmental organs. According to S.I.G.A.R. 2021 first-quarter report, “Afghanistan has long been perceived as one of the world’s most corrupt states, and the government’s anti-corruption efforts have suffered from vague strategies and insufficient actions.”

Thereby, government officials and Congressmen in the United States are wary of continued foreign assistance to Afghanistan. This is because it can backfire by creating patronage networks for corrupt officials, dividing Afghan communities, and boosting the ‘insurgency.’

Suppose the U.S. Congress decides to discontinue foreign assistance to the country post the withdrawal. In that case, which donors will the current Afghan regime find to fulfill its financial obligations?

On the other hand, in his book Directorate S, Steve Coll has uncovered how the Afghan Taliban have generated their revenue streams through shadowy trade networks, narcotics trade, and patron-client relationships with various regional countries. Will those relationships sustain post-U.S. withdrawal is a question that time will be the best judge.

Security lens

Apart from the economic lens, there is the security one. Which, if any country, would provide military bases to the U.S. at the cost of undermining national sovereignty? Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Prime Minister stated that Pakistan’s government would not be involved in any such undertaking.

Moreover, Russia might dissuade the Central Asian Republics (C.A.R.’s) from providing bases to the U.S. The United States already has a substantial military presence in various Gulf countries. However, operating from there would be costly and inefficient.

In a nutshell, the U.S. wishes that the political gains in human rights, education and democracy that it has made in Afghanistan in the last twenty years do not wither away.

However, interference in the internal affairs of another state is a violation of International Law. Article 2 (7) of the UN Charter disallows even the United Nations from intervening in a state’s domestic affairs.

Even though International Law is often trampled by the strong actors on their whims and lacks an effective enforcement mechanism, the principle of “sovereign equality” of all states is a cardinal principle of International Law.

While most Afghans might not be well-versed in International Law, however, American policymakers and those belonging to multilateral organizations who intend to make any future policy for the country are.

Will they turn a blind eye and let realism take the front seat, or will they uphold the principles of International Law to strengthen an evolving global order as postulated by neo-liberalism?

Howsoever, and whosoever answers these critical questions, must keep in mind the betterment of the future generations of Afghanistan, as the country has seen more than forty years of unnecessary carnage and violence.
This end might have been the stated aim of some Western policymakers; however, the way they went about it has cost them a fortune in blood and treasure and an image that might take years to re-build. Instead, modern-day imperialism was on display in the twenty years of the Afghan war, the kind that looked to install an alien system on an ancient civilization.

However, currently, the left-leaning Democrats in the United States despise this kind of imperialism. The rightists in America also loathe it, for they see it as government handouts (out of American taxpayers’ money) to a foreign government.

Therefore, the question remains that as the American fable in Afghanistan reaches its concluding chapter, is there a new coalition of willing ready to bring the Afghan state to the 21st century?

Omer Aamir is a Researcher for Security & Legal Affairs at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies. He has done B.A LL.B (Hons) from Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), Pakistan. This article was first published in Global Village Space (GVS). He can be reached at cassthinkers@gmail.com

Wright Brothers’ Invention in the Hands of a Bigot

Part 1: The Risk of Innovation

When the Wright Brothers pioneered their first flight in December 1903, they were unaware that this same flight would ultimately lead to Abhinandan (slinged by Modi’s antics) in one of the aircraft that would be shot from the sky. The Wright Brothers’ contributions to the aviation world are numerous. Their daring attempts, which ultimately took the life of young American army Lieutenant Thomas Selfridge can be attributed to their and other aviation enthusiasts’ unwavering dedication to the noble pursuit of giving wings to humans. They are the people of whom the aviation world and humanity, in general, are in awe. Their hazardous yet, ultimately, fruitful contributions led to many others exploring this field as well. The daring 26-year-old U.S. Army officer, Selfridge from California, died in what was ultimately his dedication to flying. The ill-fated aircraft was being piloted by Orville Wright himself. A propeller malfunction led to the crash that took the young lieutenant’s life while sparing Orville’s. Selfridge became the first casualty, and ultimately, an American national hero in the Wright Brothers’ maddening dedication to the field of aviation. This puzzling ‘whatever it takes attitude’ to the cause can be judged from the fact that although United States’ Army manuals recommended flying with at least an American football helmet, neither Orville nor Selfridge wore one.

Nevertheless, their pioneering achievements in aviation landed them a place in the all-time greatest innovators’ ‘hall of fame’ in the league of Edison, Einstein, da Vinci, and Jabir ibn Hayyan.

They succeeded against all odds in front of a hostile press, a dearth of government funding, and challenged by unscrupulous competitors. Their motives were questioned, lawsuits were initiated against them, and to top it all, Wilbur Wright did not live long enough to live in the house built from his hard-earned savings from daring aviation pursuits. Wilbur once quipped melancholically that had they not been embroiled in the distressing legal and media controversy by critics and competitors at the time, they would have succeeded beyond measure and contributed much more. The work they were doing was so risky that 11 trained American military pilots died between 1912-13 while flying the Wright-built model C. Even their father advised them to undertake the flight one ‘brother’ at a time to prevent both his sons from dying, should one of their experiments failed.

Nevertheless, by the late 1900s, the world had started to pay attention to their heroics, and the kings of Spain, Great Britain, and Italy personally came to see their aviation feets. Large crowds assembled wherever they went, and big corporations jostled to team up with them. The media had also turned in their favor. Lawsuits also went their way. If the risk and reward theory had a windfall, the Wright Brothers had won it. Orville later went on to serve on the board of the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (“N.A.C.A”), a predecessor agency to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (“N.A.S.A”), besides chairing the Wright Corporation and attaining many other honorary positions. However, his father, sister, and the (more creative and ambitious) elder brother, Wilbur (dying of typhoid), all preceded his death.

Here in the future, former US President Trump’s regressive isolationist policies and decrees were a major setback to the legacy of the Wright Brothers and other great American inventors. Nonetheless, their successful inaugural flight is a testimony to their unwavering commitment to humanity’s progress in general. A similar unflinching passion ignites other modern-day pioneers worldwide in the fields of Artificial Intelligence (“A.I”), Robotics, Quantum Mechanics, and nano-technology to take humanity forward by leaps and bounds, such as Elon Musk. How their innovations were later misused is not something that can be attributed to their mal-intent. This is elucidated by how Orville disapproved of the massive carpet bombings of civilian cities undertaken by air forces during World War II. However, the politico-military compulsions and dynamics of the early ‘40s were neither of their making nor within their control. This is similar to when Einstein disapproved of his discovery’s militarization. He was wary of what Kissinger had labelled the ultimate use of power, which leads to “destruction”, whereas efficient use of power is warfare.

PART 2: Modi’s Theatrics cut through by Swift Retort

More than a century after the end of the ‘Great War,’ the now famous 27th February 2019 battle of the two South Asian Air Forces occurred. A day that signified the resolve of Pakistani aviators to tackle adversaries who challenged the sovereignty of Pakistan. From a political angle, it unified a divided nation. From a military angle, it re-established deterrence. Psychologically, it reignited the sacrifices of Aziz Bhatti, Shabbir Sharif, and teenage patriots such as Aitazaz Hassan and Rashid Minhas. The intent of Modi’s cabal was not noble or legally sanctioned by any measure. He was out to avenge like a medieval-era warlord. However, his unprepared Air Force had to bite the dust.

Pakistan’s aerial frontiers were challenged for the first time in almost half a century. The country’s pilots’ motivation to embark on a journey that might ultimately lead them to rendering the supreme sacrifice for the motherland, is commendable beyond measure. It gained national acclaim and international fame. February was a fateful month otherwise as well. The novel Indian cross-domain strategy challenged Pakistan. Diplomatically, efforts to put Pakistan on the Financial Action Task Force (“F.A.T.F”) blacklist intensified. Legally, India sought to defame Pakistan’s military courts and label it as a terror-sponsoring nation. Militarily, India embarked on an intensive effort to exploit breaches in Pakistan’s defence. They undertook aerial ploys in four sectors before zeroing in on Balakot to destroy a few trees with their multi-million dollar Israeli-supplied SPICE-2000 weaponry. However, the Indian media (catering to public sentiment) tried to portray that their Air Force targeted and destroyed a Pakistani camp with three hundred armed fighters. A farcical victory backed by false propaganda of their military media wing.

South Asia and mainly India (primarily because of its large population) have a habit of masking and cherishing individuals who would be classified as madmen in any developed country. Take, for example, the self-styled god-man Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, who can, by any modern-day medical and legal definition, be labelled as a crazy. However, due to rampant illiteracy and widespread poverty, he managed to amass a considerable following from people who were promised a better reincarnation. He then used these individuals as political fodder to be pitched against the Sikhs and the State simultaneously, in the Indian Punjab. His luck ran out as he was arrested after a sustained political hue and cry by liberal activists in 2017. This arrest was for his involvement in the murders of journalists and vandalizing the sacred sites of Sikhism, besides other heinous crimes.

Another delusional individual happens to have made it to the highest office in India. Modi unwittingly remarked in the Defence Committee meeting that the Balakot strikes were his idea to use the cloud cover that would have benefited the Indian jets to avoid radar detection. At the same time, they conducted the 27th February airstrikes against Pakistan. A claim which runs contrary to meteorological and scientific deductions. However, his neurosis’ grimmer, yet less comical effects were seen when he oversaw the massacre of over a thousand innocent individuals belonging to the minority Muslim community – including women and children. His complacency in the pogrom was reaffirmed by a senior Indian police officer in front of the Indian Supreme Court in 2011.

Nonetheless, it propelled Modi to the premiership of the ‘world’s largest democracy.’ He cashed in on the widespread hatred of the right-wing Hindu nationalists towards the minorities internally, and towards Pakistan externally. He tried to come out as a strong man, backed by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s intensive social and electronic media campaign. However, this was also exposed just a couple of years later, when satellite imagery showed China had advanced its position across the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Modi denied everything, even though an Indian Army Colonel had died in the clashes.

His intent to cash in on false flag operations – presumably conducted by the Indian intelligence agencies themselves on 14th February went array. It might have been partly due to misguidance, and partly due to political expediency. However, the Indian Air Chief at the time stated that they were prepared to wipe out Pakistani forward brigades’ had Abhinandan not been released. Once again, a slippery slope argument.

In conclusion and hindsight, Pakistan reaffirmed credible deterrence while remaining within the boundaries defined by International Law (how it did so would be the subject of a separate opinion piece). It simultaneously did not fall into the trap of hollow rhetoric, chest-thumping and prevented a climb up the escalatory ladder by releasing the captured Indian pilot. Rights enshrined under the Geneva Convention treatment of prisoners were upheld, particularly its Articles 13 & 14. Pakistan came out resolutely as a mature peace-loving nation that knew how to protect its sovereignty. Since then, Modi’s politico-military calculations stand exposed. A day might come when he stands before an International Criminal Tribunal for his Human Rights Violations in Gujrat and Humanitarian Law violations across the Line of Control; similar to what Augusto Pinochet and Slobodan Milosevic faced. Or maybe he might not; however, his Air Force did send six of its own to stand trial before God on 27th February 2019, while two were sent on their way by the Pakistan Air Force. As for Abhinandan’s antics. Well, to put it politely, he did not put the Wright Brothers’ invention to fair use.

Omer Aamir is a researcher at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS). He has done B.A LL.B (Hons) from the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS). He intends to pursue International Law and International Relations for further studies.He blogs at omeraamir.com. The article was first published in the National Herald Tribune

Money Laundering and Jurisprudence

Money laundering promotes corporate and individual tax evasion. It worsens economic inequality globally, particularly in the developing world, and helps to fund organized criminal activity. Moreover, it aggravates socio-economic disparities. Many corrections need to occur from an enforcement and compliance point-of-view to prevent this activity from spreading its roots.

At a recently held international webinar on anti-money laundering by the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (“C.A.S.S”), experts from Pakistan and the United Kingdom also alluded that terrorism in its present form is heavily financed through money-laundering by transferring ill-gotten wealth around the globe through informal channels. Recently, according to an Al-Jazeera report, the fugitive brother of current Bangladeshi Army chief-with his implicit blessing-was also involved in money-laundering by indulging in businesses, with high cash flow, such as money exchangers and restaurants.

Through shadowy monetary frameworks, the movement of illegal funds enables transgressors to proceed with the unlawful movement of wealth while simultaneously tainting markets with perceived integrity in the system. According to an Islamabad Policy Research Institute analysis, around $1.1 trillion of illicit capital outflow occurred from developing countries to tax havens. This is almost ten times the size of foreign aid to developing countries combined. The recent revelations of different money launderers and their wealth sources by global whistleblowers—such as Panama Papers and FinCEN files—have brought to light how a large number of shell organizations, owned by other shell companies, are making credits to each other and working with global banks to convert ill-gotten assets into real capital hidden in off-shore accounts.

Tax evasion and money-laundering are no longer a widespread criminal activity. They have become an industry that promotes a cyclical reaction where more and more people evade the tax net through illicit means. Thereby institutions with supposed clean hands also implicitly become involved in it.

Be that as it may, novel advancements in Artificial Intelligence (“A.I”) present unlimited and novel prospects to plug loopholes of the global financial system. It can also be useful in detecting irregularities from the big data generated in any anti-money-laundering investigation. Moreover, it saves many man-hours and expedites the process of tracking and uncovering white-collar criminals.

Banks have flagged many dubious exchanges, giving controllers and examiners a pile of data to figure out the genuine instances of tax evasion and sifting them from bogus deceptions. New reporting requirements for banks, extended powers of law enforcement organizations, and harsher punishments for guilty parties underpin a growing acknowledgment that money laundering is increasingly becoming a fundamentally global issue. According to Robert J. DeNault, last month the U.S Congress passed another law requiring the revelation of valuable proprietors of mysterious shell organizations with an end goal to improve identification of tax evasion. This legislation is a commendable step towards financial accountability.

Nonetheless, policing money laundering is difficult. At the risk of oversimplifying, the U.S. money laundering detection and prevention system is primarily split between the banks and the government. Compliance officers inside banks act like tipsters, flagging transactions and bad actors for regulators. They send their “tips” to treasury regulators in the form of Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs). According to Syeda Mehar Zehra, head of compliance at one of Pakistan’s largest banks: Habib Bank Limited (HBL), a similar process has started to evolve in Pakistan as well. Whenever banks identify a suspicious transaction, the Financial Monitoring Unit (F.M.U) investigates, analyzes, and sends a report of the suspicious activity to intelligence agencies such as the Federal Investigation Agency (F.I.A), which takes up the case and starts to work on it. However, in Pakistan, people are still not aware of why they must send documents to financial institutions, and why it is essential to give the right information to financial and non-financial institutions. Moreover, due to a lack of awareness and financial accountability mechanisms, there have been instances where large sums of ill-gotten wealth have been transferred from Pakistan to form off-shore companies that have thereafter been used to buy properties in some of the most expensive real estate around the world.

Pakistan has enacted some meaningful legislation in the present governments’ tenure to deal with money laundering. The proverbial ‘Sword of Damocles’ of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) black-listing hanging on the country’s regulatory bodies has forced it to reform its domestic laws – even though, in the public’s perception, the FATF-related legislation is seen as an undue foreign influence on Pakistan’s legal and public policy frameworks. The counter-terrorism laws were amended domestically in Pakistan to bring them in line with this framework.  Here, the primary legislation to deal with counter-terrorism financing is the ‘Anti-Money Laundering Act, 2010.’ This formative legislation addresses administrative, regulatory, penal, procedural, and other aspects of international cooperation. It was amended in 2020 with three amendments under ‘Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Act, 2020’ to become more comprehensive.

Moreover, to enhance adherence to the U.N.S.C resolutions, the United Nations Security Council Act, 1948 was also amended by Pakistani authorities and incorporated in domestic legislation to give legal powers to authorities to curb terrorism financing and money laundering. Nonetheless, there remain several inconsistencies in the implementation phase to deal with money-laundering domestically in Pakistan.

In modern times, the banking sector itself is quite equipped technically to educate its clients and uncover acts of money-laundering. According to Shakeel Ramay, a political economist “an unjust system cannot sustain for long,” and it will crumble on its own inherent contradictions sooner than later. In this regard, he gives Switzerland’s example, which he said used to be a Laundromat heaven. However, soon the launderers themselves became unaware of the whereabouts of their own ill-gotten funds, which had been siphoned somewhere else. Thus, indicating the inbuilt inconsistencies of money-laundering and the opaqueness of certain banking systems of the West.

It can be concluded from these developments that the world has moved from the simple detection and flagging of white-collar crimes to policing them and in this regard efforts have been undertaken to make the anti-money laundering framework more robust. The policing of white-collar wrongdoing and monetary practices require an increased level of ability and skill, which should be diligently handled by public functionaries in tandem with financial institutions. Domestically, Pakistan has enacted some meaningful legislation as cited in this article; however, this legislation’s implementation is still tenuous. There is a need to comply with international regulations and apply best practices locally (such as using Artificial Intelligence to detect financial irregularities and enact comprehensive financial crime laws) to uncover financial exigencies of the past and deter white-collar criminals from exploiting loopholes. Modern-day requirements and the speed with which transfer of massive amounts of wealth a.k.a ‘hot money’ takes place demands that these measures should be impactful, innovative, and ingenious.

The Article was first published on 6th February 2021 in The Nation

Speech of Attorney General for Pakistan at the start of Judicial year 2018-19

SUPREME COURT OF PAKISTAN

Opening Ceremony of New Judicial Year (2018-2019)

10th September 2018                9:30 am onwards

Prepared by Omer Aamir

Judicial Reforms

Honourable Chief Justice of Pakistan Mian Saqib Nisar

Honourable Senior Puisne Judge Mr. Justice Asif Saeed Khan Khosa,

Honourable Judges of the Supreme Court,

President of the Supreme Court Bar Association Mr.  Syed Muhammad Kalim Ahmed Khursheed,

Vice-Chairman Pakistan Bar Council Mr. Kamran Murtaza,  

Advocates-General and Prosecutors-General of the Provinces,

Senior Advocates of Supreme Court of Pakistan,

And respected members of the Bar

Rule of law was emphasized by American President Theodore Roosevelt “No man is above the law and no man is below it; nor do we ask any man’s permission when we ask him to obey it. Obedience to the law is demanded as a right, not asked as a favor.”

This auspicious occasion presents us an opportunity to reflect how far we have come and what our endeared Country’s justice system has accomplished. Most significantly, it ignites a torch of new hope. 

The year saw many achievements for our’ Justice system especially where propagation of rule of law and the protection of fundamental rights are concerned. 8th judicial conference was organized this year. My office organized the E.C.O conference this year bringing together Attorneys’ General from all E.C.O jurisdictions. With the emergence of the judicial New Year, we must not also forget the never ending duty of continuing the crusade to modernize and reform Pakistan’s judicial system.

Law recognizes the fundamental right of access to justice inherent to an impartial system. It is an essential consequence resulting from all rights granted in the constitution. If a citizen cannot seek enforcement of his/her legal rights within a reasonable amount of time, a lot of other rights promised in the constitution will become hollow promises. It is a pity that in modern day and age in Pakistan the right of access to justice which is intrinsically linked to delays in justice is being violated in a systematic manner in Pakistan. World Justice Index ranks Pakistan at 106 out of 113 countries in terms of access to justice. Moreover, the World Bank has claimed that the time taken for enforcement of contracts in Lahore & Karachi is 1025 & 1096 days respectively, a clear indication of the delays in our justice system.

Delays in the settlement of civil disputes, besides causing frustration to the litigant public, also hamper the socio-economic development of the society. Justice delayed is, undoubtedly, justice denied. Consequently, it has always been the primary concern of civilized societies to address the issue of delayed justice with a view to find ways and means of removing defect/deficiencies in the administration of justice.

Lawyers Umer Gilani & Asher Qazi conducted a study under the supervision of Justice Jawwad Khawaja in which they determined average Shelf life of case to be 1,119 days i.e. 37.3 months, a horrid figure in the 21st Century.

Under Article 37(d) of our esteemed Constitution, it is responsibility of each and every organ to ensure delivery of ‘inexpensive and expeditious justice’. Let’s look at possible remedies:

Firstly, for most categories of suits, petitions, revisions & appeals, the limitation laws’ in place in statues framed by parliament is consistently manipulated. Rules setting strictly enforceable time-limits should be formulated for such categories of suits on a war-footing. The urgency in expediting legal reforms is the need of the hour. Justice Javed Iqbal has rightly pointed out in his report titled, ‘The Role of Judiciary as a catalyst of change’, “The expeditious disposal of cases is undoubtedly a laudable objective. However, it is not an end in itself; it is merely a means to an end, that end being the provision of prompt and inexpensive justice”

 Legal reforms need to be put in place to set time-limits, upend the backlog that has been created, and deliver timely justice and also to ensure treaties are honored by courts so that no embarrassing situation for the state is created in international tribunals. For latter to happen, respective institutional boundaries must be respected by all institutions. The state of Pakistan is faced with burden of incurring financial losses amounting to billions of dollars due to hastily conceived, populistic Judicial decisions of the past disregarding international Laws and norms.

While discussing the question of delayed justice another pivotal question that arises concerns the rottenness of the police system in place and its complete inability to respond to crimes involving factors such as tribal and feudal pressures and oppression of the socially and economically weaker sections of society. Whenever Police Reforms take place in the future under this incumbent government, the judiciary needs to be an active player not only in formulation but also implementation of these reforms because ultimately it has to bear the burden of an inefficient, ineffective and corrupt police. A consensus-based approach with regards to all stakeholders should be taken.

Moreover, Supreme Court has stated time & again that independence of judiciary is a principle so fundamental to the constitution that even a properly promulgated constitutional amendment can be struck down if it is in violation thereof. This independence and autonomy should be held at all costs. As a famous Latin saying goes, “Fiat Justitia Ruat Caelum” i.e. let justice be done, though the heavens may fall. Dispensation of justice through an independent mechanism is a principle whose significance has stood the test of time and proved to be an impregnable pillar of any prosperous society. An example can be quoted from WWII where during the peak of the bombing campaign on London by the Germans, Prime Minister Winston Churchill was briefed on the casualties and economic collapse. He asked, “Are the courts functioning?” When told that the judges were dispensing justice as normal, Churchill replied, “Thank God. If the courts are working, nothing can go wrong.”

To that end, I also look to this Honorable Bench. It is after all this very bench and its eminent predecessor-members of the recent past, that have affirmed the independence of the judiciary as an ideal that could and would be had in his life. It is keeping in view this fruitful struggle that we slowly but surely move towards a new order, where the Constitution is paramount, and access to justice a reality.

In addition to considering our internal judicial policies, we must also study the justice systems of foreign countries and adopt best practices around the world

Denmark’s Justice System is greatly praised and has the highest ranking on the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index. What makes its justice system so unique and credible is that it consistently acknowledges the needs of the Danish people and the significance of keeping public’s faith in the system. It follows a system that provides expeditious delivery & easy access to justice and practices a robust internal accountability mechanism. It has a system firmly established on the rule of law.

 Our history has been witness to the fact that no matter how many policies we make, at the end of the day, they will remain to be mere pieces of paper unless they are implemented. Therefore, Pakistan must adopt the same zealous attitude in order to keep at par with the expectations of the citizens of Pakistan and mobilize their faith in the courts, the State should centre their reforms on expeditious and corruption free deliverance of justice.

I would end on a quote by famed Social Reformer Martin Luther King Jr “Justice denied anywhere diminishes justice everywhere”

Allah ta’Allah is naya saal ka aghaz hum sab ke liya behtar saabat kara. Pakistan Paindabad

Dual Nationality Laws in Pakistan

   A question that is being scrutinized by the Supreme Court nowadays is about whether dual nationality held by Government officials is a serious offence and does it constitute a staid conflict of interest situation. If yes, then where the line should be drawn?

            In 2012, the Supreme Court, while disqualifying parliamentarians who held dual nationality, said that it did not doubt the patriotism of Pakistani citizens holding dual nationality and that the case was simply related to enforcement of Article 63(1) (c) of the constitution. (Bar on holding office under Article 63(1) (c) but not under Article 62 i.e. from contesting the elections. Therefore this gives rise to an ambiguity that a person can be elected to hold a public office, however he is not allowed to retain that office if he carries a dual nationality.) Dual nationality of public office holders has since been in the limelight as a contentious topic and even the dual nationality of judges has been challenged in court of law. A subsequent fact finding inquiry was ordered by Chief Justice Saqib Nisar in 2018 to determine the dual nationality of judicial officers.

‘Article 63 (1) (c) reads:

A person shall be disqualified from being elected or chosen as, and from being, a member of the Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament), if:-

(c) he ceases to be a citizen of Pakistan, or acquires the citizenship of a foreign State; …’

In Iftikhar Ahmad Khan Bar versus Chief Election Commissioner Islamabad and others, (PLD 2010 SC 817), it was held that:– 

“The Parliament of any country is one of its noblest, honorable and important institutions making not only the policies and the laws for the nation but in fact shaping and carving its very destiny.”

Therefore, this case was cited in Syed Mehmood Akhtar Naqvi vs Federation of Pakistan (PLD 2012 SC 1089) as giving out a raison’d’etre  to Article 63(1)(c) of the constitution. Parliament due to in sanctimonious place and its policy making powers cannot allow a person holding dual nationality to be its member. The process for election to it, however should also include this bar and therefore Article 62 of the constitution should be amended accordingly.

Moving on, firstly we need to differentiate the different kind of Government officials and the varying law standards applying on them with regards to dual nationality. These Government officials can be divided broadly into the following categories:

  1. Parliamentarians
  2. Members of the Judiciary
  3. Civil Servants
  4. Military Personnel
  5. Others.

The law established by the Supreme Court with regards to Parliamentarians has been stated above.  Other groups, however except, the military personnel deal with a vagueness when it comes to law regarding dual nationality.

What does the Foreigners Act and Foreigners’ order have to say?

Section 8 of the Foreigners Act states with regards to dual nationality:

Determination of Nationality

“(l) When a foreigner is recognized as a national by the law of more than one foreign country or where for any reason it is uncertain what nationality, if any, is to be ascribed to a foreigner, that foreigner, may be treated as the national of the country with which he appears to the prescribed authority to be most closely connected for the time being in interest or sympathy or if he of uncertain nationality, of the country with which he was last so connected…..”

The act earlier defines ‘foreigner’ in Section 2 (a):

“Foreigner’ means a person who is not a Citizen of Pakistan.”

Moreover, Foreigner’s Order 1951 of Pakistan clearly specifies restriction on employment of foreigners in rule 10 whereby it states:

“No foreigner shall, without the general or special permission in writing of the civil authority, enter any premises relating to, or be employed in, or in connection with—–

(a)  any undertaking for the supply to Government or to the public of light, petroleum, power or water, or

(b)  any other undertaking which may be specified by the Federal Government in this behalf.”

Therefore the provision of light, petroleum, power and water are clearly specified in this section as being professions that are to be devoid of foreign nationals. However, “any other undertaking specified by the Federal Government also falls under this provision. An example of such an undertaking is recruitment in the armed forces. Notices regarding recruitment in the armed forces explicitly mention that a person is ineligible to be selected if he/she is a dual national. Moreover during one of the hearings in the recent case …………….. , Honorable Chief Justice Mian Saqib Nisar remarked about whether the foreign employment of Gen® Raheel Sharif and Lt.Gen® Ahmed Shuja Pasha was approved by the Federal Government or rather solely a Ministry of Defense notification. He remarked that the Federal Government consisted of the Prime Minister and the cabinet. Article 90 of the constitution defines the federal government. Article 90(1) reads:

“Subject to the Constitution, the executive authority of the Federation shall be exercised in the name of the President by the Federal Government, consisting of the Prime Minister and the Federal Ministers, which shall act through the Prime Minister, who shall be the chief executive of the Federation.”

The question that has arisen in this case is whether the above mentioned Army officials were given exception by the Federal government in regards to being employed by a foreign government or by a prerogative of the Defense Ministry solely. Does a question of conflict of interest arise in this case? However the then Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif came out and clarified that due process had been followed with regard to Gen® Raheel Sharif’s move to Saudi Arabia to head the International Islamic Military Alliance Coalition. Nonetheless, no clarification has been issued with regards to Lt.Gen® Ahmed Shuja Pasha getting recruitment in U.A.E after retirement from the sensitive post of Director General, Inter-Services Intelligence (I.S.I). It will have to be a wait and see thing that what comes up with regards to this case.

What about Civil Servants then:

                            As of now, however, no hindrance with regards to dual nationality and employment in the civil service exists. As Lawyer Waqqas Mir writes in his article ‘Dual Nationality: a conflict of interest for beauracrats’,

“…if a new bar for bureaucracy is created in ongoing cases it will have to be judicially invented… Would the judiciary’s crafting of a bar where legislature has not prescribed one be fair? The writer answers this question in the negative.”

                        The bar is on employment of foreign nationals with the government of Pakistan. However, it is to be made clear that Pakistan has a dual nationality agreement with 13 countries which allows Citizens of either of the following Country to maintain a Pakistani nationality as well. These countries are as follows:

  1. United Kingdom
  2. United States
  3. Canada
  4. Australia
  5. New Zealand
  6. France
  7. Italy
  8. Belgium
  9. Iceland
  10. Switzerland
  11. Netherlands
  12. Sweden
  13. Ireland.
  • These dual nationality agreements circumvent the bar on dual nationality prescribed by section 14 of citizenship act of 1951 which creates certain exceptions but generally states the following. Nevertheless, The obligation of loyalty under Article 5 of the constitution extends only to citizens therefore civil servants who perform function in the public interest must be citizens as well as stated below:
     “It is not in contention that civil servants are public servants and are, therefore, meant to take decisions only in accordance with law in the public interest. … It is their obligation to remain compliant with the Constitution and law.” 2013 PLD SC 195 Mark B

“Dual citizenship or nationality not permitted

.—Subject to the provisions of this section if any person is a citizen of Pakistan under the provisions of this Act, and is at the same time a citizen or national of any other country he shall, unless he makes a declaration according to the laws of that other country renouncing his status as citizen or national thereof, cease to be a citizen of Pakistan.”

            The act then goes onto say the exceptions in place in order to accommodate dual nationality. Two of the 4 exceptions created are as follows

“….. (3)Nothing in sub-section (1) shall apply, or shall be deemed ever to have applied at any stage, to a person who being, or having at any time been, a citizen of Pakistan, is also the citizen of the United Kingdom and Colonies or of such other country as the Federal Government may, by notification in the official Gazette, specify in this behalf.

(4)Nothing in sub-section (1) shall apply to a female citizen of Pakistan who is married to a person who is not a citizen of Pakistan.”

Therefore, if a Civil Servant or his/ her spouse holds the nationality of either one of these countries there is no bar on them to not be in the service of Pakistan as legally speaking under the Section 2(a) of the Foreigners act 1946 they do not fall in the category of a ‘foreigner’ but fall under one of the exceptions of the bar on dual nationality. The logic of civil servants not holding dual nationalities has been partly supposed to hinge on some notion of conflict of interest. However this is a weak standard of reasoning. Strengthening disclosure agreements would make sense, enacting a bar does not. Moreover, if these laws do come into force they should be enacted by the Parliament and not the judiciary. A solution that seems logical is to enact clear disclosure requirements for clearly identified sensitive posts by legislation in the parliament.

What about the Judiciary:

                         Similar to civil servants, there exists a bar on foreigners not being able to join the superior judiciary as Article 193 (2) of the constitution states

“A person shall not be appointed a Judge of a High Court unless he is a citizen of Pakistan…”

However, there is no bar on dual nationals being appointed to the superior judiciary in Pakistan. Similar norms are followed with regards to the subordinate judiciary. Chief Justice Mian Saqib Nisar gave a fact finding order in January of this year to find out who all in judiciary and bureaucracy were holders of dual nationality. This fact finding mission found out that 204 dual nationals were working at BPS-17 or higher scale in the government. Moreover, the spouses of more than 210 of such individuals were holders of dual nationality.

 However, if a bar on dual nationals becoming judicial officers is to be followed, it will have to come from the judiciary as a legal or administrative order. This is because if it comes through parliamentary legislation, it can be challenged in the court of law and judiciary will not be kind to infringement by the legislature in its internal affairs and subsequently its independence.

How are dual nationals identified compared to foreigners:

                        The foreigner’s act 1946 clearly separates foreigners from legally recognized dual nationals. Moreover, NADRA has launched a separate identification card scheme for foreign Nationals (or those who have surrendered Pakistani nationality) i.e. Pakistan Origin Cards (POC). These people are differentiated from Pakistan overseas card holder who are mostly Dual national Pakistani citizens.

                        Similarly in India, There exists a provision for an alternative form of Indian nationality which is similar to POC, the holder of which are to be known as Overseas Citizen of India (OCI). It does not afford voting right, nor eligibility to contest elections of Lok Sabha or take up any Government post.  Therefore we can see how the bar for enjoying public office extends only to citizens:

Indian citizenship Act 1955” 7B. Conferment of rights on overseas citizens of India. (1)Notwithstanding anything contained in any other law for the time being in force, an overseas citizen of India shall be entitled to such rights other than the rights specified under sub-section(2) as the Central Government may, by notification in the Official Gazette, specify in this behalf.(2) An overseas citizen of India shall not be entitled to the rights conferred on a citizen of India-(a) under article 16 of the Constitution with regard to equality of opportunity in matters of public employment;”

Others:

                        Members of Provincial assemblies also have to be citizens of Pakistan according to article 113(a) of the constitution. Similar law applies to the President of Pakistan and the governor’s under Article 41 and Article 101 of the constitution. A close scrutiny of Article 101 reveals:

“Article 101

A person shall not be appointed a Governor unless he is qualified to be elected as member of the National Assembly and is not less that thirty-five years of age.”

Therefore the bars on members of National assembly that we have discussed particularly the one in Article 63 (1) (c) applies in this case too. Therefore a governor cannot acquire the citizenship of another country during his term as the governor.

It came to the the courts attention Four Senators: Sarwar Chaudhary, Haroon Akhtar, Nuzhat Sadiq, and Sadia Abbasi had the foreign dual nationality. ECP restrained from issuing their notification. These senators were directed to produce proof of their relinquishment of dual nationality by 8.3.2018. Attorney General for Pakistan conceded that no person who is a foreign dual national can hold membership of the Parliament (including the senate) and before taking oath or holding office they have to relinquish citizenship and any such relinquishment shall be irreversible. Thereafter they gave proof of their irreversible relinquishment of dual nationality to the courts in order to take over their seats in the senate.

Conclusion and Way Forward:

                        Dual nationality does or does not entail a conflict of interest position for someone working for the state or any state owned entity? That is the question at hand. It is clear that in the case of military personnel who have to defend the country and guard its frontiers, there should be no holding of dual nationality. Strict enforcement in this regard would have to be by the Ministry of Defense and they should uncover any individual concealing such a nationality. Moreover, those individuals holding sensitive positions in government or government owned entities besides those specified in rule 10 of Foreigners Order 1951 should also be barred from holding dual nationality. Therefore certain posts for example Inspector General Police or Director General Intelligence Bureau besides Federal Ministers, Governors, and Federal Secretaries should exclude individuals in possession of a dual nationality. Also, Judiciary should adjudicate on the matter of dual nationals in superior judiciary particularly with regards to judges who have to hear important constitutional matters as well as cases of sensitive nature concerning defense and other departments. A reasonable standard should be enacted to determine where the line should be drawn and the most reasonable standard in this matter would be to not making dual nationality a hindrance to joining governmental or state owned enterprises positions but to eliminate them from holding high office and/or sensitive positions.

 The last question that remains is what should be done about government servants who marry foreign nationals. The law explicitly bars this under Government Servants (Marriage with Foreign Nationals) Rules 1962 with the notion where such marriage has taken place with the prior permission of the government. This was confirmed in PLD 2014 Sindh 218

““…under Rule 3(supra) it is provided that government servant who marries a foreign national shall be guilty of misconduct and render himself liable to any of the major penalties…However, in sub-rule (2) it is provided that a Government servant with the prior permission of the Federal Government may marry a foreign national”(para7).”

              This aspect of law requires clarification through further legislation as to in what circumstances can a government official marry a foreign national and which(if any) posts are then excluded from his/her domain if he wishes to do this. A reasonable bar would entail a detailed legislation on foreign national spouses of different countries and differentiating them from dual national spouses. Furthermore, it would require legislation detailing the different law applied to varied type of officials in government service i.e. judicial officers, military personnel, civil servants, semi-government entities officials, etc.

            A thorough review of case law and legislation in this intriguing matter is required by both the judiciary and legislature in order to overcome the lacuna in law regarding conflict of interest and dual nationality. In this regard laws from other jurisdiction should also be revisited and their applicability in Pakistan should be looked into.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Act 1 (February 2019): India undertakes ‘non-military’ surgical strikes across the international boundary. The failure of the attack and the ensuing successful Pakistan Air Force counter strike forces the Indian Prime Minister to remark that if India had Rafale jets, the result would be different.

Act 2: (August 2020): Newly-inducted Rafale jets land in Ambala to a water-cannon reception. Indian media explodes with hype, while simultaneously covering Modi’s laying of the foundation stone at the Ayodhya Temple city in Northern India. Warmongers in the overpopulated nuclear-armed South Asian behemoth once again raise their ugly head as Ram Temple is inaugurated at the site of the demolished Babri Mosque.           

It was in 1757 that Robert Clive plundered one of Mughal India’s richest province: Bengal, with the help of the treacherous Mir Jaffar. The decadent Nawab of Bengal at the time, Siraj-ud-Daula, had not felt the need for a force in the sea. His slow-moving elephant cavalry and massive amount of foot soldiers, could not take on the ‘laconic, yet ambitious’ Clive’s much smaller force consisting of Europeans and local sepoys. Clive not only had the Jagat Seths (financiers of Bengal) by his side but Mir Jaffar of Persia, an old veteran General of Aliverdi Khan (Siraj’s grandfather), had also secretly changed allegiances. He allegedly cited Siraj-ud-Daula’s bad governance as the reason for his switch.

Extrapolating the fall of Bengal to the present day, lessons must inevitably be drawn from the fall of Bengal in 1757 and preparations made to counter current Indian governments’ evil designs. The more important lesson to draw is to prevent incompetents like Siraj-ud-Daula from taking hold in the government. With a sprinkling of Siraj ud Daula’s in decision making, it will not be hard for our enemy to take advantage of our beloved nation’s Achilles heels. At present, the economy is in bad shape, and there is no fiscal space for major weapon systems acquisitions, besides those from China and those coming through from indigenous developments. However, that should not yield the current setup to resign to fate. Expedient steps such as a targeted stimulus package, lowering interest rates and efforts to reduce unemployment are the need of the hour. These measures will help revive the economy and create space for much-needed defence acquisitions.

India has acquired the latest weaponry and planes to supplement its diverse fleet of Russian, French, American, and locally-manufactured force. Moreover, the Indian Air force (IAF) has also substantiated its air defence in a deal worth over $5.5 billion for the super-advanced and one of the most lethal air defense systems in the world: the S-400. If Pakistan fails to counter these defence acquisitions at some future instance, it will be akin to Siraj ud Daula leaving the waters of Bengal undefended.

India’s Ballistic Missiles Defense (BMD) is multi-layered. Per reports that came through in January 2020, the first phase of the BMD program is now complete. Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) are waiting for the government’s approval to install the missile shield for the national capital, which is likely to take three to four years to install after approval. The two-tiered BMD System consists of the Prithvi Air Defense (PAD), which will intercept missiles at exo-atmospheric altitudes and the Advanced Air Defense (AAD) missile for the interception at endo-atmospheric altitudes. The deployed system would consist of many launch vehicles, radars, Launch Control Centres (LCC), and the Mission Control Centre (MCC). All these are geographically distributed and connected by a secure communication network

If the deadly Meteor and SCALP weaponry of the Rafale were not enough to ruffle feathers alongside the above mentioned BMD system in Pakistan policy-making circles; The Indian military has also expedited planes for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)- a 5th generation aircraft that is slated to perform flights by 2024 and become operational by 2029. $60 million have already been allocated for the research and development of this platform as the Indian defence industry seeks indigenization.

Pakistan is being dragged into an arms race, which is not of its choosing. Indian leadership has also become more emboldened, and the peace overtures are being more aggressively rejected. Moreover, the IAF’s doctrine since 2012, of operationalizing ‘surgical strikes’ has picked up steam. Also, India’s newly appointed Chief of Defense Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat and their aggressive defence minister, Rajnath Singh, have staked claim to Azad Kashmir, time and again.

Rafale, for one, will help the Indian military overcome its limitation of deep fire (while remaining within its airspace). Nonetheless, a RAND study outlined the poor training and mixed readiness state of the Indian Air Force. However, with advanced air-to-ground weaponry such as HAMMER (part of Rafale deal), the Indian Air Force will be precisely able to target objectives and people within Pakistan while remaining within its International boundary.

Presently, it is quite evident that the Indian military is engaged in aggressive military modernization. With a strengthened armoury, it will undertake human rights violations on the oppressed Kashmiris with more impunity, arousing more anger from the Pakistani state and citizenry for the sake of their Kashmiri brethren. The draconian Armed Forces Special Protection Act (AFSPA) will be more hostilely used, and the abject state of Kashmiris worsened. The first anniversary of India’s abrogation of the ‘Special Status’ accorded to the Kashmiris just passed. In the future, the eyes of the Indian establishment in connivance with their right-wing Hindu nationalist government is set on Pakistani administered parts of erstwhile Jammu & Kashmir State. National Register of Citizens Act (NRA) and Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) 2019 are further examples of actions taken by the Modi government that are specifically geared to marginalize Muslims. Looking ahead, additional steps that incite hatred from and towards the South Asian Muslims are likely to come from the Indian ultra-right-wing government. Modi, Amit Shah, and the BJP troupe are expected to undertake punitive strikes in Muslim-majority Pakistan in the future following a staged false flag action, to mobilize their Hindu appeal, whenever it is politically expedient.

According to Indian international lawyer, Rishi Gupta, the international community has placed more importance on maintaining state sovereignty and power over all parts of the state than on humanitarian and human rights issues. This raison d’etre points to the community’s unsurprising silence while the Kashmiri suffering under an autocratic regime continues unfettered. Since the revocation of Article 370, and the passing of The Constitution (Application to Jammu and Kashmir) Order, 2019 (C.O. 272), the State of Kashmir has been on a legally tenuous standing with regards to its accession to India. Article 370 formed a key negotiation element on which the supposed instrument of accession was signed by Maharaja Hari Singh of Kashmir, and it has since been abrogated. Moreover, all sovereign power that-according to famous Genevan philosopher Rousseau-stems in any well-functioning democracy from the people has been lost. Instead, the deductions made from a quantitative analysis over the last decade and analysed by Rashmi Sehgal of the National University of Malaysia point toward a high demand for Kashmir’s independence amongst the Kashmiris. According to Rashmi, a political framework that will accommodate the Kashmiris aspirations for self-determination is the present-day requirement. However, after the August 5th, 2019 steps, India is much further from giving Kashmiris their International law sanctioned right to self-determination and/or providing a political framework to do so than at any other point in history.

Moreover, India has also antagonized the Chinese dragon at its doorstep besides its engrossment in a convoluted situation regarding Kashmir since August 5th, 2019. Only an irrational leadership would have undertaken the miscalculations that the current BJP government has done. Surprisingly, the arrival of just 5 Rafale jets was portrayed by the jingoistic Indian media as if to solve all of India’s defence woes. However, the grim reality remains that India is currently in a geo-politically and geo-strategically unenvious position. The question is that whether Aliverdi Khans’ of Pakistan will take advantage and pressurize their arch-nemesis through a calculated strategy across all domains, or will the indolent Siraj-ud-Daula’s reign supreme and reconcile with the status quo? If the Aliverdi Khans’ reign supreme, then they will indubitably benefit from deficiencies within India’s current Kashmir policy.   

The article was first published in moderndiplomacy.eu

Negotiating a Safe Path

The Taliban are huddled in their camp with the little left over fire burning out. They have decisions to make before another surgical laser guided air strike by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) wipes away another of  their  company. PAF’s air strikes are taking a toll on them and their most adamant demand which is of releasing their fellow prisoners held in various prisons throughout Pakistan is fading into the nights dust. They have only themselves to blame for this situation. The Taliban 2.0 thought they were prepared but they were not prepared enough. The latest F 16 block 52 equipped with laser guided bombs that could also have been used at night totally took the talibs by surprise.

They have been bruised at their strongest without hurting the Pakistani state even an iota. They have been forced onto the negotiating table knowing that a single bomb attack would be met with a barrage of air strikes. Their positions have been compromised and their only demand left is to negotiate a safe way out. Taliban are totally on the back foot.

Pakistan vs South Africa (A bird’s eye view)

This is going to be my first sports articles for the blog.. I would like to dive right into the situation though. So as all the Pakistani’s know we are up against the South African in U.A.E in a couple of months. Not the place we wanted it to be but everyone else in the world will take it gladly as our home turf. It is expected to be a full series staring 2 tests, 5 ODI’s and 2 T20’s.

It has been approximately 3 years since the last time these two teams faced off at the same venue with South Africa winning both the ODI series and the T20’s while the test series remained inconclusive. The ODI series saw the Razzaq Blitz, Zulqarnain’s flight but the eventual dominance of the Proteas. We also recently faced a whacking from the South African in their own backyard and everybody would love to forget about that tour baring the T20. This time I expect our boys to do better if only it is just in the ODI’s that is.

First things first, please bring back the tiger called Younis Khan back into the team. The man has done everything in his power to lift the team in many tremulous situations and desevers another chance before retirement. Moreover, the combo of Younis Khan and Misbah is a proven work formula in our middle order. Younis Khan is a player who can keep the run rate going by rotating strike as well as post a big score. Moreover,who can forget his canny slip fielding. We need this man only if it for an year or two till our teams’ youngsters gain experience. Secondly, somebody get a coach for the Pakistani team that tells them how and when to run between the wickets. We aren’t as bad as Australians have been lately but still we are quite disastrous. Even though Mohammad Yousuf was known to get his partner run out most frequently and Inzi was a Hippo when it came to running, the new batch has not lived up to their expectations of improving this situation. Thirdly, Pakistan needs to give Haris Sohail and Umar Amin more imporatant and frequent roles with the team rather than keeping them on the fringes.

Coming back to the team composition, I feel like we need to give the regular line up of Jamshed,Hafeez,Ali,Younis,Misbah,Shafiq,Ajmal,J.Khan the green signal. For the last two bowler slots I would root for root and root. Just Kidding. I would like Wahab Riaz to be tried instead of Irfan for tests. Irfan has been just a huge sensation because of his height. In the 2 tests he has played he has manaeged only 3 wickets and has gone for plenty. The big man wasn’t built(literally) for the longer format. Please give the guy a break. The last bowler slot is ambiguous. It was Umar gul’s but as he is not found in the availability chart and M.Aamer still has (only,InsAllah) one year left on his ban I would say Abdur Rehman. He took 9 wickets in the two match test series in U.A.E in 2010. Either him or give mohammad sami/tanvir ahmed/asad ali a go ahead. A right arm fast bowler would be always welcome to pair up with our two left quicks. Lastly, for the slot of wicket keeper I would not want to see any of the akmal brothers behind the stumps. Test matches are their favorite playground for fixing as they know the nations’ attention span is usually not reserved for the 5 day grinding. Either bring in Mohammad Rizwan or just stick with Sarfaraz Amhmed. Neutral Prediction for the test series is 1-0 in favor of the South African but the Pakistani prediction says we can make it a 1-1 even header. I am not expecting much draws because this is not West Indies, South India or England where the threat of rain looms large.

Lets switch to the one days as I am running out of time.(Sehri time is fast approaching). I would like Pakistan to open with Hadeez and Jamshed. Middle order should compose of Younis and Misbah (plz stop calling the hero ‘tuk’ ‘tuk’). Umar Akmal can keep the gloves for one days and either one of the trio of Umar Amin, Asad Shafiq or Haris Sohail should be given the anchor spot of 4 down. Mister Shahid Afridi, Irfan, J.Khan, Ajmal and Haider (yes Rizwan Haider or Hammad Azam probably) should be given the bowling spots. I wanted Haider or Azam in because they are players who can also save your a** with the bat. Neutral prediction is 3-2 in favor of Proteas and Pakistani prediction is 3-2 in favor of Pakistan. I expect this to be true battle of the desert like the last time around as both the bowling line ups are equally capable of smashing apart each others batting lineup. Moreover Amla, Smith & Kallis match up equally well with Hafeez,Misbah and Younis in this format. The only huge advantage South Africa have is a man called AB DeVillers and I think that is why South Africa will take this close fought battle

Shifting to the T20’s. I would finish this up as fast as Afrdi finished up India in Kanpur in 2005. I would like Pakistan to keep a slorip(slow run rate but run pillar) batsmen in the t20 lineup. It can be either of Shafiq/Misbah/Younis/Azhar Ali. This batsmen should be kept at 3 down in order to counter act a collapse. So for the t20 line it should be Shehzad/AwaisZia,Jamshed,Hafeez,Sohail/Amin,NO.3 Slorip,U.Akmal,Afridi,H.Azam/S.Tanvir,Ajmal,J.Khan/Aizaz Cheema,THE IRFAN. I put in Awais Zia and Aizaz Cheema because I see these two players as cricketers who haven’t been given the full chance to show their potential. Neutral prediction is 2-0 in favor of South Africans. Pakistani Prediction is 2-0 in favor of Pakistan. I expect the onslaught of David Miller, Ryan McClaren, AB de Villiers and J.P duminy to be very hard to control in this format. If they get back Steyn and incorporate in Pharnell or Philander with Morkel, they will be able to put together a devastating lineup.

Conclusively I expect it to be a roller coaster tour so I feel like y’all buckle up(except for the Tests) and hold on tight for this one. 🙂